2026 International Soccer Tournament Predictions
International football tournament 2026 predictions: our picks, dark horses and best bets
The knockout rounds of the biggest quadrennial soccer tournament in the world are now underway and It's All at Stake! Keep up to date with our regular coverage of the event as national teams go head-to-head in the United States and North America for a chance to make history. All matches in the 2026 international football tournament are available to bet on when you join Stake Sportsbook, with the latest soccer betting odds now live. Use our picks and analysis here at Stake when making your bets to have the best odds of selecting the right picks this summer.
Our outright winner prediction after the group stage
Our original prediction was for France to win the tournament, and that hasn’t changed at all following their impressive performances in the group stage. France has a well-balanced squad, with some of the best defenders, midfielders and attackers in the world. Mbappe has been the standout star, with the attacking talents of Ousmane Dembele and Michael Olise also impressing. France topped their group, scoring 10 goals and conceding just 2. Although there are plenty of strong teams left in the tournament, it’s hard to see any of them beating France.
Learn more about outright betting and how you can place soccer bets in our Stake guides.
Dark horses still alive in the knockout bracket
While France are favourites to win the tournament, there are many other teams that potentially offer better value. Dark horses have the potential to outperform the odds, providing increased value. Here are our dark horse picks for this summer’s tournament:
Norway: why their group stage form makes them dangerous
Norway remains an excellent dark horse bet for this tournament, with the attacking power to stun any of the traditional “big” nations. Premier League talents Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard are key to their attack, with Haaland scoring 4 goals in the group stage. They had an impressive perfect record in qualifying and have continued that form into this competition, winning all games except for their match against France. After qualifying in 2nd place, they beat the Ivory Coast in the round of 32 before stunning 5-time champions Brazil 2-1 in the round of 16. They now face England in the quarter-finals.
Morocco: the 2022 semi-finalists worth backing again
Morocco impressed at the 2022 World Cup, where they reached the semi-finals. They have a talented squad, with several players at the highest level, such as Hakim Ziyech and Achraf Hakimi. This tournament, they’ve already upset the odds against Brazil, holding the 5-time world champions to a draw in their opening game. They qualified from Group C with 2 wins and 1 draw, scoring 6 goals and conceding 3. Currently, they’re ranked behind Norway and the USA in the betting odds. They passed a tough test in the Round of 32, beating the Netherlands to advance, before thrashing Canada 3-0 in the Round of 16. They now face France in the quarter-finals.
USA: the host nation tearing up the script
The USA has historically underperformed in soccer, with US sports fans preferring American football and basketball. However, the host nation has developed an impressive squad and, led by former Premier League manager Mauricio Pochettino, looks dangerous. They topped their group, winning every game and scoring 6 goals while conceding just 1. It was a relatively straightforward group, but they also have a favourable bracket. They comfortably beat Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 and now face Belgium in the Round of 16, who have looked beatable.
Teams to fade in the knockouts: who’s overperforming their odds
Two of our fades have already come good. Portugal fell 1-0 to Spain in the round of 16, ending Cristiano Ronaldo’s final World Cup, while Brazil were dumped out by Norway, once again failing to reach the quarterfinals. One fade remains live:
England have been perennial underachievers at the World Cup since they won it in 1966. Although they’ve recently had some success in reaching the semifinals and finals of major tournaments, they’ve still come up short. Now, with a new coach at the helm, things were meant to be different. However, England failed to beat Ghana in the group stage and needed a 3-2 thriller to get past Mexico in the round of 16. They now face Norway and an in-form Erling Haaland in the quarter-finals.
Outright winner odds and how they’ve shifted since the group stage
The sports betting odds are subject to change during the tournament. The outright winner odds have already shifted quite a bit. France and Spain were originally level, but France have now moved ahead as the favourite. Meanwhile, Argentina has surpassed England, while the USA have had the biggest change in odds since the start of the tournament.
Right now, these are the favourites to win the tournament outright:
France
Argentina
Spain
England
Round of 16 bracket predictions
With the group stage over, the knockout rounds have begun. In these matches, tied matches after 90 minutes are settled on extra time and penalties. The losing team goes home, so the pressure is higher than ever. Many teams will be competing in the knockout rounds of the international tournament for the first time.
Which side of the bracket favours the favourites
Some teams will have an easier path to the final than others based on where they’ve been placed in the bracket. For example, Argentina has a straightforward path to the quarterfinal, with only Egypt now standing in their way. Meanwhile, Spain have come through their toughest test yet against Portugal and will face the winner of USA vs Belgium in the quarter-finals. Consider each team's future matches when making your outright winner picks.
Our round of 16 predictions
Our earlier calls in this round have already landed, with Norway upsetting Brazil and Morocco beating Canada 3-0 - our exact predicted scoreline. Here are our picks for the remaining matches:
USA vs Belgium - USA win 3-1
Switzerland vs Colombia - Colombia win on penalties
Egypt vs Argentina - Argentina win 3-1
Our predicted final and score prediction
Our final prediction is France to beat Argentina 2-1.
Golden Boot picks after the group stage
Every tournament, the Golden Boot is awarded to the player with the most goals scored. These 4 are the current favourites for the 2026 football tournament:
Lionel Messi (Argentina)
Kylian Mbappe (France)
Ousmane Dembele (France)
Harry Kane (England)
Lionel Messi is now the favourite to win the tournament’s Golden Boot after rolling back the years to score 6 goals during the group stage, breaking the all-time scoring record. Assisted somewhat by a weak group. Messi has a great chance of securing the Golden Boot if Argentina can replicate their performances against top sides.
Despite scoring 4 goals during the group stage, Kylian Mbappe is now the 2nd favourite to win the competition’s Golden Boot award. The Real Madrid and France forward won the award at the 2022 World Cup with 8 goals, which included a hat-trick in the final. France have looked sharp so far in this competition, and have the best chance of winning according to the latest odds, giving Mbappe a great chance of securing the Golden Boot.
Ousmane Dembélé has moved up to 3rd-favourite in the Golden Boot odds after also scoring 4 goals in the group stage, including a hat-trick against Norway. The French forward had an incredible season at PSG and has brought his club form to the international tournament. With France likely going to the final, he has a great chance of winning the Golden Boot.
Harry Kane has sunk below the top contenders in the current odds for the Golden Boot. The England and Bayern Munich striker has previously won the award at the 2018 World Cup. He started the group stage with 2 goals in England’s opening game and scored again against Panama. However, Kane failed to convert in England’s 0-0 draw with Ghana. England have slipped in the outright winner odds after some shaky performances.
Player props and value bets for the knockout rounds
You can bet on lots of different markets during this tournament, including player props like first goalscorer, bookings and much more. When looking for value, pay attention to all the available betting options and make use of the latest stats. Our guide to how to read sports betting odds is essential reading if you want to get the best value.
Player props worth backing in the round of 16
Argentina have possibly the easiest route to the quarterfinals, facing Egypt in the Round of 16. We’re backing Messi to continue his excellent form in this knockout game, scoring 2 or more goals. Learn how prop betting works in our complete guide.
Best value bets on the outright market
Look at the bracket position of the knockout stage when choosing value bets on the outright market. For example, Argentina and Spain both have relatively straightforward paths to the semifinals. Spain will likely have to play France or Morocco. On the other hand, based on our bracket predictions, Argentina will face England in the semifinals.
When trying to get value, you want to ignore past results and look at current form and stats. Looking at their current form and odds, Spain and Argentina seem like good picks for the outright betting market.
Our knockout round parlay and longshot picks
Our Round of 32 parlay landed, and we’re going again. Our new knockout round parlay is for the USA, Colombia and Argentina to all win their Round of 16 matches. This 3-leg multi bet is eligible for Stake Shield, which will protect you if one or more legs lose if you have it active. Check out the parlay betting and Stake Shield guide for more information.
Where to bet on the 2026 international football tournament
Stake offers the best place to bet on the 2026 international football tournament, providing competitive odds on all matches, novelty markets, and amazing betting promotions. Check out the outright, pre-match and live betting markets and join the VIP Club to unlock rewards by placing bets. The VIP FAQ page has more details on how you can benefit from rakeback, reload bonuses, and your own VIP host.
